Betfair Hurdle Trends Analysis

I’ve singled out a number of key trends for the Betfair Hurdle and looked at which of this year’s runners fit the trends:

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners were aged between 4 and 6.
    These horses filled 77% of the total places from 63% of the total field.
  2. 10 of the last 10 winners carried 11-2 or less.
    These horses filled 85% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from 80% of the total field.
  3. 5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 134 and 137.
    These horses filled 36% of the total places (including 50% of the total winners) from 23% of the total field. 3 of the last 5 winners have fit this trend, and if we focus on the last 5 years, these horses filled 40% of the total places from 26% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their last start.
    These horses filled 74% of the total places from 51% of the total field.
  5. 4 of the last 10 winners were dropping down in class.
    These horses filled 36% of the total places from 25% of the total field. This includes 3 of the last 4 winners and both of the last 2. If we focus on the last 5 years, we see that these horses filled 35% of the total places from 17% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or the UK.
    These horses filled 64% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  7. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 16 or less National Hunt races.
    These horses filled 95% of the total places from 87% of the total field.
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 10 or less hurdles races.
    These horses filled 85% of the total places from 73% of the total field.
  9. 5 of the last 10 winners had never run in a handicap.
    These 5 winners all came in the last 6 years. This is a significant over-performance, considering these horses made up just 13% of the total field in the last 10 years, but managed to fill 23% of the total places. In the last 5 years, they have over-performed even more significantly – 35% of the total places from 20% of the total field.

This Year’s Runners

Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total
High Bridge No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Jenkins Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Bleu Et Rouge No No No No No No Yes Yes No 2
Verdana Blue Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Charli Parcs Yes No No No No No Yes Yes No 3
Divin Bere Yes No No No No No Yes Yes No 3
Remiluc No No No Yes No No No No No 1
Moon Racer No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5
Misterton No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Kalashnikov Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7
Project Bluebook Yes No No No No No No Yes No 2
Kayf Grace No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Spiritofthegames Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Lough Derg Spirit Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 7
Poppy Kay No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Lalor Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes 7
Knocknanuss No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 6
Waterlord No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7
William H Bonney No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No 4
Irish Roe No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 7
Silver Streak Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 6
Nietzsche Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes No 4
Coeur Blimey No Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Zalvados Yes Yes No Yes No No No Yes No 4
Magic Dancer Yes Yes No No No Yes No No No 3
Maquisard Yes Yes No No No No No Yes No 3

So, the trends shortlist:

  1. Kalashnikov, Lough Derg Spirit, Lalor, Waterlord, Irish Roe – 7
  2. Knocknanuss, Silver Streak – 6

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