I’ve singled out a number of key trends for the Betfair Hurdle and looked at which of this year’s runners fit the trends:
- 10 of the last 10 winners were aged between 4 and 6.
These horses filled 77% of the total places from 63% of the total field.
- 10 of the last 10 winners carried 11-2 or less.
These horses filled 85% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from 80% of the total field.
- 5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 134 and 137.
These horses filled 36% of the total places (including 50% of the total winners) from 23% of the total field. 3 of the last 5 winners have fit this trend, and if we focus on the last 5 years, these horses filled 40% of the total places from 26% of the total field.
- 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their last start.
These horses filled 74% of the total places from 51% of the total field.
- 4 of the last 10 winners were dropping down in class.
These horses filled 36% of the total places from 25% of the total field. This includes 3 of the last 4 winners and both of the last 2. If we focus on the last 5 years, we see that these horses filled 35% of the total places from 17% of the total field.
- 8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or the UK.
These horses filled 64% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
- 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 16 or less National Hunt races.
These horses filled 95% of the total places from 87% of the total field.
- 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 10 or less hurdles races.
These horses filled 85% of the total places from 73% of the total field.
- 5 of the last 10 winners had never run in a handicap.
These 5 winners all came in the last 6 years. This is a significant over-performance, considering these horses made up just 13% of the total field in the last 10 years, but managed to fill 23% of the total places. In the last 5 years, they have over-performed even more significantly – 35% of the total places from 20% of the total field.
This Year’s Runners
|Bleu Et Rouge||No||No||No||No||No||No||Yes||Yes||No||2|
|Lough Derg Spirit||Yes||Yes||No||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||Yes||No||7|
|William H Bonney||No||Yes||Yes||No||No||Yes||Yes||No||No||4|
So, the trends shortlist:
- Kalashnikov, Lough Derg Spirit, Lalor, Waterlord, Irish Roe – 7
- Knocknanuss, Silver Streak – 6