Ascot Chase Trends Analysis

This year’s Ascot Chase is a fascinating renewal, with old favourite Cue Card, Gold Cup contender Coney Island and Ryanair Chase hopes Top Notch and Waiting Patiently among the field of 7. I’ve picked out 10 key trends for the race and ran this year’s runners past them to see which horses fit the ideal profile for an Ascot Chase winner.

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners had an official rating of 162 or more.
    These horses filled 74% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from just 34% of the total field.
  2. 10 of the last 10 winners had at least placed in a grade 1.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won a grade 1.
    This narrows down the field well, as these horses filled 61% of the total places from 37% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last 3 starts.
    These horses filled 91% of the total places from just 69% of the total field.
  5. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 6 last time out.
    These horses filled 87% of the total places (including 90% of the winners) from 78% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won 4 or more chases.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 64% of the total field.
  7. 8 of the last 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 67% of the total field.
  8. 8 of the last 10 winners had previously run in between 6 and 19 chases.
    These horses filled 91% of the total places from 81% of the total field.
  9. 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Ascot.
    These horses filled 52% of the total places (incluing 70% of the total winners) from 43% of the total field.
  10. 6 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George last time out.
    These horses filled 39% of the total places (including 60% of the winners) from just 16% of the total field.

This Year’s Runners

Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
Coney Island Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No 6
Cue Card Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No 7
Frodon Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No 5
Speredek No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No 6
Top Notch Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 9
Traffic Fluide No Yes No No No No Yes Yes No Yes 4
Waiting Patiently Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No 5

So, the trends shortlist looks like this:

  1. Top Notch – 9
  2. Cue Card – 7

Top Notch

A quick look at Top Notch’s profile confirms that he’s a leading contender:

  • Overall Record: 19 runs – 10 wins – 3 places
  • 3-3-0 at Ascot
    Won a class 3 hurdle over 2 miles in January 2015
    Won a class 2 2m 5f chase in December 2016
    Won c grade 2 2m 5f chase here last November
  • He runs well with some sort of cut in the ground – 5-4-0 on good to soft and 9-5-2 on soft, compared to 3-0-1 on good ground. 2-1-0 on heavy.
  • The majority of his starts have been in small fields, but he has been fairly consistent in them (14-9-1 in fields of 7 or less, 5-1-2 in bigger fields).
  • He has a strong record in November (6-3-1), December (3-3-0), January (2-1-0) and February (3-3-0). This drops slightly in March (3-0-2) and April (1-0-0). 1-0-0 in October.
  • He has a particularly strong record at right-handed tracks (5-5-0), compared to 14-5-3 going left-handed.
  • He has a strong record on tracks described as having slight undulations (such as Ascot), with a record of 10-8-1. 4-1-0 on flat tracks and 5-1-2 at more undulating tracks.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s