Stayers Hurdle Profiles

Bacardys

  • Overall Record: 11 runs – 5 wins – 3 places
  • Cheltenham record: 2-0-1
    • 3rd in the Champion Bumper in 2016
    • Pulled up in the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 207
  • It’s hard to see a preference in terms of ground, with wins varying from good to yielding (2-1-1) to heavy (1-1-0).
  • The furthest he has won over is 2m 4f (1-1-0). 1-0-0 over 2m 5f and hasn’t run over further.
  • Patrick Mullins has the best record on him (5-4-1). Ruby Walsh is 3-1-1 and Paul Townend is 3-0-1.
  • He seems to prefer smaller fields – 6-4-1 in fields of 11 or less, 5-1-2 in larger fields.
  • He needs a relatively recent run – 7-4-1 when back out within 60 days of his last start, 3-0-2 after a longer break. He did win on his debut, however.
  • It’s hard to tell whether there is a particular preference in terms of the time of year – he’s just 2-0-1 in November but 3-2-0 in December and 1-1-0 in February. This drops to 2-0-1 in March but picks up to 3-2-1 in April.
  • He may prefer flatter tracks – 6-4-0 on flat tracks, 5-1-3 on more undulating tracks.
  • Summary: Ground not an issue. Not a proven stayer. Likes small fields. Needs a run within the last 60 days. May prefer flatter tracks.

Diakali

  • Overall Record: 13 runs – 6 wins – 2 places
  • Cheltenham record: 2-0-1
    • 4th in the Triumph Hurdle in 2013
    • 4th in the grade 3 2m 1f County Hurdle in 2014
  • Soft ground is the preference – 7-2-1 on good to soft or better, 6-4-1 on yielding to soft or worse, including 4-3-0 on heavy.
  • There’s no reason to think that this would be his trip – 8-6-1 over 2m, 5-0-1 over further.
  • Ruby Walsh has a strong record on him (5-4-0), as does Paul Townend (5-2-1). Danny Mullins placed once (1-0-1), while A P McCoy and David Casey are 1-0-0 each.
  • He may prefer smaller fields (10-6-1 in fields of 7 or less, 3-0-1 in fields of 8 or more).
  • He hasn’t run well when back out very quickly (4-0-1 when back out within 30 days). 8-5-1 after a break of at least 30 days, and he also won on his debut.
  • He seems to begin the season well (this makes sense considering the last stat) with a record of 2-2-0 in November. 3-1-1 from December to February and just 3-0-1 in March, but this picks up to 3-2-0 in April.
  • He seems to prefer right-handed tracks (6-4-0 compared to 7-2-2 going left-handed).
  • He runs well at undulating tracks – 6-2-1 at flatter tracks and those with just slight undulations, compared to 7-4-1 at more undulating tracks.
  • Summary: Soft ground is better. Not a proven stayer. Small fields. At least 30 days off. First half of season. Right-handed, undulating track.

Knight Of Noir

  • Overall Record: 20 runs – 5 wins – 5 places
  • Cheltenham record: 3-0-2
    • 2nd in a class 3 2m 5f handicap hurdle in November 2014
    • 2nd in a class 2 3m handicap hurdle in January 2015
    • 9th in the listed 3m Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle at the 2015 festival
  • It’s difficult to find a preference in terms of ground – 13-3-4 on good to soft or better, 7-2-1 on soft or worse. He has won on ground ranging from good to heavy.
  • The records worth noting are Noel Fehily (5-2-1), A P McCoy (1-1-0) and Tom Scudamore (7-1-3). Nick Scholfield is 4-1-0, Paul Townend 1-0-0 and J A Best 2-0-1.
  • He hasn’t run at this level – 1-0-0 in grade 3 races. His highest win was actually in a class 3, and his record at class 2 or higher is 5-0-1.
  • He has a poor record both when back out within 30 days of his last start (5-0-1) and after a long layoff (3-0-1 after over 120 days off). However, after a break of between 30 and 60 days (he has never run after a break of between 60 and 120 days) his record reads 11-5-2.
  • Place records would suggest that he’s seen to his best at a left-handed track (11-3-4 compared to 9-2-1 going right-handed).
  • Summary: Any ground is fine. 30-60 days off. Unproven at this level.

Lami Serge

  • Overall Record: 19 runs – 6 wins – 7 places
  • Cheltenham record: 4-0-3
    • 4th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2015
    • 3rd in the JLT Novices Chase in 2016
    • 2nd in the grade 2 2m 4½f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2017
    • 2nd in the grade 3 2m 1f County Hurdle at the 2017 festival.
  • Soft ground is a big plus – 10-5-2 on soft or heavy compared to 9-1-5 on good to soft or better. He has won on good, though (3-1-2) so he’s hardly majorly inconvenienced by a sounder surface.
  • Barry Geraghty has a particularly strong record (4-3-0), while the others are Nico De Boinville (3-1-2), Daryl Jacob (11-2-4) and Davy Russell (1-0-1).
  • He may prefer smaller fields (15-6-5 in fields of 11 or less, 4-0-2 in fields of 12 or more).
  • Very strong record when back out quickly (3-3-0 when back out within 15 days of his last start). 15-2-7 after a longer break. He has won after a break of 299 days, and also won on his debut, so going fresh isn’t a major concern either.
  • His record is strongest from November to January (combined record of 11-5-4). This drops to 2-0-0 in February, 3-0-2 in March and a slightly better 3-1-1 in April.
  • He could prefer right-handed tracks (6-3-2 compared to 13-3-5 going left-handed).
  • Summary: Soft ground and a very recent run are both major pluses, but not vital. November to January.

Lieutenant Colonel

  • Overall Record: 24 runs – 6 wins – 3 places
  • Cheltenham record: 3-0-0
    • 6th in the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2014
    • 10th in the Stayers Hurdle in 2015
    • Pulled up in the Stayers Hurdle in 2016
  • He seems to like some sort of a cut in the ground (just 10-0-2 on good to yielding or better, 14-6-1 on yielding or worse). However, he is just 3-0-1 on heavy ground.
  • The best records are Bryan Cooper (10-4-2), J J King (1-1-0) and B T O’Connell (2-1-0). Less impressive records are those of Davy Russell (3-0-1), David Mullins (3-0-0) and Jack Kennedy (5-0-0).
  • Although he has been unplaced on both starts when back out within 2 weeks of his last start (2-0-0), his overall record when back out within 30 days is still decent (10-4-1). After a longer break he’s 12-1-2.
  • His best record is in the first half of the season – 12-5-2 from October to January, 3-0-1 in February, 3-0-0 in March, 5-1-0 in April and 1-0-0 in May.
  • His wins have generally come at right-handed tracks (16-5-1 compared to 8-1-2 going left-handed) but these are similar place records.
  • Summary: some sort of cut in the ground. Back out within 30 days. October to January. Right-handed tracks.

Lil Rockerfeller

  • Overall Record: 29 starts – 7 wins – 10 places (6 of these starts, 2 of the wins and 1 place were on the flat, so I’m going to focus on his National Hunt record of 23 starts, 5 wins and 9 places).
  • Cheltenham record: 5-0-3
    • 3rd in a class 2 2m½f hurdle in October 2015
    • 2nd in the grade 2 2m 4½f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2016
    • 7th in the Champion Hurdle in 2016
    • 4th in the grade 2 2m 4½f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2017
    • 2nd in the Stayers Hurdle in 2017
  • He probably prefers better ground – 15-4-6 on ground with “good” in the going description, 8-1-2 on anything softer.
  • Trevor Whelan usually rides (19-4-8), while Sean Bowen is the only other jockey to have won on him (1-1-0). Noel Fehily is 1-0-1, while Richard Johnson and Harry Skelton are 1-0-0 each.
  • It’s hard to see very many patterns in his form based on the other variables which we would usually check.
  • Summary: Ground with good in the going description.

Old Guard

  • Overall Record: 28 starts – 9 wins – 5 places (3 runs, 1 win and 2 places were on the flat so I’m focusing on the National Hunt record – 25 runs, 8 wins, 3 places).
  • Cheltenham record: 10-3-1
    • 9th in the Triumph Hurdle in 2015
    • Won a class 3 2m½f handicap hurdle in October 2015
    • Won the grade 3 2m½f Greatwood Handicap Hurdle in November 2015
    • Won the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2015
    • 3rd in the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2016
    • 7th in the grade 2 3m½f Cleeve Hurdle in January 2017
    • 7th in the 2m 5f grade 3 Coral Cup at the 2017 festival
    • 3rd in the grade 3 2m½f Greatwood Handicap Hurdle in November 2017
    • 5th in the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2017
    • 4th in the grade 2 2m 5f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2018
  • He’s 3-0-0 on heavy, but other than that it’s hard to see any strong preference. He can certainly cope with soft (8-2-2) as well as good ground (6-3-0). 8-3-1 on good to soft.
  • Harry Cobden’s 8-4-0 is an impressive record. Bryony Frost is 4-1-1, Nick Scholfield 3-1-0 and Sam Twiston-Davies 10-2-2.
  • He has tended to come up short at this level (4-0-0 in grade one races, 7-2-0 in grade 2 races).
  • He begins the season well (9-5-1 in October/November). This begins to drop (6-2-0 in December, 5-1-0 in January/February, 5-0-1 in March/April).
  • Summary: Possibly doesn’t like heavy ground. Has come up short at this level. First half of the season.

Penhill

  • Overall Record: 27 runs – 11 wins – 3 places (The majority of this form is on the flat, but I’m going to take it into account as his record of 9 runs, 6 wins and 1 place over jumps will be difficult to find patterns in).
  • Cheltenham record: 1-1-0
    • Won the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle in 2017
  • It’s hard to see a preference in terms of ground – 13-4-2 on good (mostly on the flat), 4-3-0 on soft or worse.
  • Just including National Hunt jockeys, Ruby Walsh is 6-3-1 on him and Paul Townend is an impressive 3-3-0.
  • He has finished outside the places on all starts in large fields of 16 runners or more (4-0-0). 23-11-3 in fields of 15 or less, including a particularly impressive 8-6-1 in fields of 7 or less.
  • He has a very strong record when back out quickly – 5-4-0 when back out within 15 days of his last start. However, he has also won after a long break (3-2-0 after over 120 days off the track).
  • He seems to love undulating tracks such as Cheltenham – 7-5-1 at undulating tracks, 20-6-1 on flatter surfaces and those with just slight undulations.
  • Summary: Fields of 15 or less – 7 or less is ideal. Back out quickly or long lay-off. Undulating tracks.

Sam Spinner

  • Overall Record: 9 runs – 6 wins – 3 places
  • He has never run at Cheltenham.
  • He has shown versatility in terms of ground, having won on heavy (1-1-0), soft (3-2-1) and good to soft (5-3-2).
  • J Colliver’s record on him (6-4-2) is almost identical to that of Brian Harding (3-2-1).
  • He may have a preference for smaller fields, with a rock-solid record of 6-5-1 in fields of 11 or less (form of 121111) compared to 3-1-1 in fields of 12 or more (form of 221).
  • One of his defeats came in April (1-0-1) and one came in October (1-0-1). His record between November and February reads 7-6-1.
  • Summary: Smaller fields may be a positive but it’s really hard to knock him on anything.

Supasundae

  • Overall Record: 17 runs – 6 wins – 4 places
  • Cheltenham record: 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2015
    • 7th in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in 2016
    • Won the 2m 5f grade 3 Coral Cup in 2017
  • Soft ground seems to be a plus – 8-4-3 on yielding to soft or worse, 8-2-1on yielding or better. However, 3-1-1 on good suggests that no ground should be of any real worry.
  • The records of Robbie Power (8-3-2), Andrew Tinkler (1-1-0), Barry Geraghty (1-1-0) and J J Burke (4-1-1) are worth noting. Danny Mullins is 1-0-1, while Jamie Codd and Noel Fehily are 1-0-0 each.
  • He seems to run better when back out relatively quickly (10-4-3 when back out within 60 days of his last start compared to 6-1-1 after a longer break). He did win on his debut, however.
  • Summary: Back out within 60 days.

The New One

  • Overall Record: 36 runs – 20 wins – 7 places
  • Cheltenham record: 14-6-3
    • Won a 1m 6½f listed bumper in January 2012
    • 6th in the Champion Bumper in 2012
    • Won a class 2 2m 5f novices hurdle in October 2012
    • 2nd in a grade 2 2m 4½f novices hurdle in January 2013
    • Won the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2013
    • Won the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2013
    • 3rd in the Champion Hurdle in 2014
    • Won the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2014
    • 5th in the Champion Hurdle in 2015
    • 4th in the Champion Hurdle in 2016
    • Won the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2016
    • 5th in the Champion Hurdle in 2017
    • 4th in the grade 3 2m½f Greatwood Handicap Hurdle in November 2017
    • 2nd in the grade 2 2m 1f International Hurdle in December 2017
  • Completely versatile in terms of ground, from 10-5-2 on good to 4-3-1 on heavy.
  • Sam Twiston-Davies usually rides, and has a record of 32-18-6 on him. Z Baker is 1-1-0, Noel Fehily is 1-0-1 and Richard Johnson is 2-1-0.
  • His record after a lay-off is worth noting – 6-6-0 after over 120 days off the track. He also won on his debut.
  • He starts the season particularly well (9-8-0 in October/November). This drops to 8-3-4 in December but he’s a very strong 7-6-1 in January. This drops again in March (6-1-1) and April (6-2-1).
  • Summary: Long lay-off beneficial. Start of the season.

The Worlds End

  • Overall Record: 10 runs – 5 wins – 1 place
  • Cheltenham record: 2-0-0
    • Fell in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle in 2017
    • 4th in the grade 2 3m½f Cleeve Hurdle in January 2018
  • He’s 2-0-0 on heavy ground but 3-2-1 on soft and 5-3-0 on good to soft or better.
  • Paddy Brennan and Wayne Hutchinson are both 1-1-0, while Adrian Heskin has rode him on all of his other starts (8-3-1).
  • It’s hard to see any real trends based on the other variables which we’d normally check.
  • Summary: Might not like heavy ground.

Unowhatimeanharry

  • Overall Record: 26 runs – 11 wins – 10 places
  • Cheltenham record: 5-4-1
    • Won a class 3 2m 5f handicap hurdle in November 2015
    • Won a grade 2 3m novices hurdle in December 2015
    • Won the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle in March 2016
    • Won the grade 2 3m½f Cleeve Hurdle in January 2017
    • 3rd in the Stayers Hurdle in 2017
  • 14-7-5 on soft or worse is slightly better than 12-5-4 on good to soft or better. However, if we exclude his record on heavy and look at just his record on soft, it reads 8-6-2. It’s possible that he likes a cut in the ground but doesn’t necessarily like very testing conditions. Having said that, he has won on ground ranging from good (5-1-3) to heavy (6-1-3).
  • The strongest records are those of Noel Fehily (6-5-1), Barry Geraghty (6-4-2) and Liam McKenna (1-1-0). The others are Chris Davies (3-1-1), Paul Moloney (7-0-4) and C V Ring (3-0-2).
  • His record since moving to the yard of Harry Fry is extremely consistent (13-10-3).
  • He may be better after a break (8-4-3 after at least 60 days off compared to 17-6-7 when back out within 60 days of his last start). He also won on his debut.
  • Summary: Soft ground ideal (just soft, not heavy). 60 or more days off ideal.

Wholestone

  • Overall Record: 14 runs – 6 wins – 6 places
  • Cheltenham record: 7-4-3
    • Won a class 3 3m novices hurdle in October 2016
    • 2nd in a grade 2 2m 5½f novices hurdle in November 2016
    • Won a grade 2 3m½f novices hurdle in December 2016
    • Won a grade 2 2m 4½f novices hurdle in January 2017
    • 3rd in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle in 2017
    • Won the grade 2 2m 5f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2018
    • 2nd in the grade 2 3m½f Cleeve Hurdle in January 2018
  • His record on good ground is very strong (5-3-2). 9-3-4 on softer, though, including 2-1-1 on heavy, so no ground should be a major issue.
  • Daryl Jacob normally rides (13-5-6). Sam Twiston-Davies is 1-1-0.
  • All of his wins have come in smaller fields (11-6-3). 3-0-3 in fields of 12 or more.
  • Summary: 11 runners or less is a plus.

Yanworth

  • Overall Record: 18 runs – 12 wins – 3 places
  • Cheltenham record: 5-2-1
    • 4th in the Champion Bumper in 2015
    • Won a grade 2 novices hurdle over 2m 4½f in January 2016
    • 2nd in the Neptune Novices Hurdle in 2016
    • 7th in the Champion Hurdle in 2017
    • Won a grade 2 2m 5f novices chase in January
  • He has an extremely strong record on softer ground (7-6-1 on soft or heavy compared to 11-6-2 on good to soft or better).
  • Barry Geraghty has a fantastic record on him (13-10-2). AP McCoy (3-1-1) and Gerard Tumelty (1-1-0) have also won on him, while Mark Walsh (1-0-0) hasn’t been as lucky.
  • He’s probably better after a break – 4-4-0 after over 120 days off the track (he also won on his debut when fresh). His record after between 30 and 90 days off is similarly strong (6-4-1) but the majority of his defeats have come when back out within 30 days of his last start (7-3-2).
  • March is probably his worst month (3-0-1, all at the Cheltenham festival). This picks up in April (1-1-0) and May (1-1-0). He begins the season well (combined record of 6-5-0 in October and November). He has lost twice in December (4-2-2) but has a strong record in January and February (combined record of 3-3-0).
  • He may have a preference for right-handed tracks, although not a major one (9-7-1 compared to 9-5-2 going left-handed).
  • He probably likes flatter tracks (2-2-0 on flat tracks and 8-6-2 on tracks with slight undulations compared to 8-4-1 on more undulating tracks).
  • Summary: Soft ground is ideal. At least 30 days off, 120 days ideal. Might like right-handed tracks, flat tracks.

Augusta Kate

  • Overall Record: 13 runs – 5 wins – 2 places
  • Cheltenham record: 2-0-0
    • 7th in the Champion Bumper in 2016
    • 6th in the Albert Bartlett Novices Hurdle in 2017
  • She’s 2-0-0 on proper good ground but 3-2-0 on good to yielding. 8-3-2 on yielding or worse.
  • Patrick Mullins has the strongest record (3-3-0). David Mullins is 3-1-1, Ruby Walsh is 4-1-1, Paul Townend is 2-0-0 and Danny Mullins is 1-0-0.
  • Her record is stronger in larger fields (7-4-1 in fields of 8 or more, 6-1-1 in fields of 7 or less).
  • She seems to begin the season well (3-3-0 from September to November) and finish it well (4-2-1 in April) but she’s just 6-0-1 from January to March, including 2-0-0 in March itself.
  • Summary: Might not like real good ground. At least 8 runners. First half of the season.

Colins Sister

  • Overall Record: 14 runs – 5 wins – 3 places
  • Cheltenham record: 4-0-2
    • 4th in a class 3 2m½f bumper in October 2015
    • 5th in a listed 2m½f bumper in November 2015
    • 3rd in the grade 2 2m 5f Relkeel Hurdle in January 2018
    • 3rd in the grade 2 3m½f Cleeve Hurdle in January 2018
  • Her best record is on soft ground (6-4-1). 3-0-2 on heavy isn’t bad, making her overall record on soft or worse 7-4-2. In comparison, she’s just 5-1-0 on good to soft or better.
  • Paddy Brennan is usually on board (10-5-2). C P Shoemark is the only other jockey to have rode her, with a record of 4-0-1.
  • 3 of her wins have come in fields of 7 runners or less (5-3-0). She’s 9-2-3 in bigger fields.
  • 4-0-1 when back out within 30 days of her last start so this is probably a negative. 9-5-2 after a longer break.
  • She hasn’t tended to be as effective at the end of the season (3-0-1 from March to May). 5-3-0 in October/November, 6-2-2 from December to February.
  • 4 of her wins have come at left-handed tracks (10-4-2, compared to 4-1-1 going right-handed).
  • Summary: Soft ground or worse. At least 30 days off. End of season not ideal.

Jers Girl

  • Overall Record: 15 runs – 5 wins – 4 places (3 runs, 1 win and 1 place were on the flat, so I’m going to focus on her 12 runs, 4 wins and 3 places in National Hunt races).
  • Cheltenham record: 1-0-0
    • Fell in the Mares Hurdle at the 2017 festival
  • It’s hard to see a strong preference in terms of ground. She has won on yielding (3-2-0) but is 2-0-1 on good to soft and 1-0-0 on good to yielding. Her record on soft or worse is strong (9-3-3).
  • A number of jockeys have rode her in the past. Richard Johnson, J A Heffernan and G N Fox are all 1-1-0. Robbie Power and R P Cleary are both 2-0-1, Mark Walsh in 1-0-0 and Barry Geraghty is 7-2-2.
  • She hasn’t been successful in very small fields – 5-0-2 in fields of 7 or less. 10-5-2 in fields of 8 or more.
  • She has a preference for right-handed tracks (7-4-3 compared to 8-1-1 going left-handed).
  • Summary: At least 8 runners. Right-handed track.

La Bague Au Roi

  • Overall Record: 13 runs – 10 wins – 0 places
  • Cheltenham record: 1-0-0
    • 7th in the Mares Novices Hurdle at the 2017 festival
  • Her defeats have come on good (6-4-0) and on soft (3-2-0) so it’s hard to see where the preference lies. 4-4-0 on good to soft ground.
  • All 3 defeats have come with Gavin Sheehan on board (6-3-0). Richard Johnson is 3-3-0, H A A Bannister is 3-3-0 and Noel Fehily is 1-1-0.
  • All 3 defeats have come in grade one (1-0-0) and grade two (3-1-0) races. 4-4-0 in listed races and 5-5-0 in class 4 or lower.
  • She’s 9-9-0 in fields of 11 or less, and just 4-1-0 in fields of 12 or more.
  • 2 of her 3 defeats came after a break – she’s 5-3-0 after over 90 days off the track, compared to 7-6-0 after a shorter break.
  • Her defeats have all come in the spring – 8-8-0 from October to January, but just 5-2-0 in March and April.
  • All 3 defeats have come at left-handed tracks (9-6-0, she’s 4-4-0 going right-handed).
  • Summary: Hard to tell if these are real negatives or not, but possible negatives would be: Gavin Sheehan, grade one/two, 12 or more runners, over 90 days off, spring, left-handed.

Lets Dance

  • Overall Record: 14 runs – 6 wins – 4 places
  • Cheltenham record: 2-1-0
    • 4th in the Triumph Hurdle in 2016
    • Won the Mares Novices Hurdle at the 2017 festival
  • Her wins were on ground ranging from good (3-2-0) to soft (2-2-0). 5-2-2 on anything between those two, and 4-0-2 on ground worse than soft.
  • Ruby Walsh has rode her more than any other jockey (10-4-4-). Danny Mullins is 1-1-0 and Paul Townend is 3-1-0.
  • She has come up short in grade one races (5-0-3) but is 3-2-0 in grade two contests and 2-2-0 in grade three races.
  • She seems to prefer left-handed tracks (7-4-2 compared to 7-2-2 going right-handed).
  • Summary: Probably doesn’t want it worse than soft. Has come up short in grade one company. Left-handed.

 

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