It’s not often that you’ll catch me backing a 4/6 shot but Kachy duly obliged yesterday, showing that terrific early pace to get straight over to the rail and tear off in front. George Bowen ran on well to grab 2nd and is probably one to keep an eye on (the majority of his career starts have been on turf but his all-weather record is striking, with form of 183812) and he also brings Richard Fahey’s form in that race to 121132. The other results came courtesy of Alben Star and Kimberella, and it’s just something to keep in mind for next year.
There’s a lot of racing taking place today with 8 meetings across the UK and Ireland, but, perhaps unsurprisingly after the quality of the racing that we saw midweek and will see at Fairyhouse, none of it could really be described as incredibly exciting. As usual, I’m just going to run through the cards and point out anything that’s worth noting or keeping an eye on, along with a couple of bets. I’m currently studying the Irish National in depth and will more than likely be having a few bets in that race on Monday. The grade one novice chase on Sunday looks a bit trickier at the moment with only five runners, but I’ll post my thoughts on that tomorrow.
2:05 Haydock – Casa Tall was one that I took from the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham, running a fine race but failing to stay the trip in the business end. He looked like a step back to around 2 miles would suit perfectly, and he gets it today. I tend to be cautious about putting up a horse each-way in a 16-runner race in case there’s a non-runner, in which case the race suddenly turns from the perfect each-way race to a tricky one. However, William Hill have made this a 6-place race, which makes it perfectly reasonable to have a nice bet on Casa Tall, albeit not at the best available price. If we were to back him at 9/1 with Betfair we would get ¼ the odds, but would only be getting paid out on 4 places, with the risk of getting paid out on just 3 with a non-runner. With Hills, we’ll get paid out on the first 6 places even if there are as few as thirteen runners.
Casa Tall 1pt e/w 8/1 (William Hill, 1/5 odds 6 places)
2:30 Cork – we’ll see the winner of the Irish Lincoln back out again tomorrow, but Karawaan has been raised 10 pounds for that effort. You might argue that he was flattered by a favourable draw in the Lincoln, but Colin Keane’s comments after the race that he would come on for the run mean that he has to be considered interesting – one would imagine that any horse being prepared for the Lincoln is fairly forward at this time of year anyway. The 10 pound hike in the weights means that he could be within the grasp of the handicapper, and he’s sure to be short in the betting. Katiymann might be a bit more interesting – he made his reappearance at Leopardstown on Trials Day and could be backed at 11/1 the morning of the race before being backed into a starting price of 7/1. He was drawn out wide and never really got the chance to make an impact. I had been hoping to see his mark drop by a few pounds afterwards, though, and he was left on 87. At 10/1, he seems to be more or less found in the market.
2:35 Kempton – Nausha is one to watch here – she’s currently between 33/1 and 50/1 for the 1000 Guineas and 25/1 for the Oaks after an nice debut at Newbury last October. That form isn’t working out too badly; the filly in 2nd, Spanish Aria, won a class 3 race next time out and is now rated 83. The 3rd was Madame Tantzy who also won next time out and went on to compete in the Fred Darling Stakes last weekend (albeit finishing last). The Newbury run was Spanish Aria’s fifth start so Nausha should be open to more improvement and if she shows potential here then she could be one to keep an eye on.
3:35 Musselburgh – Tor hasn’t been seen since January when he ran very keen at Wolverhampton but did well to finish just 3 lengths behind the winner, almost getting 3rd. He’s back on turf today, on which he has won 5 races from 21 starts (0 from 8 on the all-weather). He’s a course and distance winner off 85 (he runs off 90 today) and I just thought that 25/1 was a little bit big. It’s not a confident selection but obviously if we keep correctly identifying overpriced horses, we’ll win in the long run.
0.5pt win Tor 25/1 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
4:10 Cork – Globe Theatre didn’t do anything spectacular at Naas but he did shape like a colt in need of a run, as is often the case with an Aidan O’Brien horse at this time of year. I had been keeping an eye on him more on the basis that he could now run in a handicap, and 15/8 is too short, but he’s still one to watch.
4:15 Kempton – Treacherous is a good stayer for 6f and he did well to finish 2nd in a slowly run 6f race last time. He steps up today in terms of class and 10/1 looks big. However, he needs a truly run 6f to be seen at his best (he has won over 7f) and I’m not too sure where the speed will be coming from here. Exchequer looks likely to lead, but none of the others are established front runners, which is putting me off having anything other than a small bet. If they go fast enough, he shouldn’t be 10/1. The question, though, is whether they will go fast enough. If they do go slowly and he runs creditably, he’ll be one to keep an eye on – he has become very consistent since a wind op last autumn, with form of 2331112.
0.5pt win Treacherous 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
5:15 Musselburgh – Super Julius, who we were on last week when 2nd, is back out off the same mark, 5 furlongs, good ground, cheek pieces – it’s the very same argument as last time. I wasn’t too keen to follow him again as I thought he’d be around the 2/1 mark, but 7/2 is tempting enough to give him another chance. I suspect that he’s still well handicapped and was just unlucky to run into a horse who was better handicapped last time out.
1pt win Super Julius 7/2 (Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports)
5:20 Cork – I backed Grandmaster Flash when he was beaten by a length from a bad draw at Leopardstown last time out, on the basis that he would appreciate the step up in trip to 10f. He did appreciate the step up and I wouldn’t write him off from a better draw here today, donning cheek pieces for the first time. It is a big field, but 4/1 is just about big enough for me to have an interest. At slightly crazier prices (100/1, to be precise), Kefallonia did come in for a tiny bit of support before the off last time out, was held up and never really on terms but he did look to be staying on from the back. My first thought was that a step up in trip would suit and he gets one today, and 100/1 is just a little bit insulting to his chances.
0.5pt win Grandmaster Flash 4/1 (general)
0.5pt win Kefallonia 100/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
That’s a total of 5 points staked. Best of luck and enjoy the racing.