Arkle Chase Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Altior 7 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
2016 Douvan 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2015 Un de Sceaux 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2014 Western Warhorse 6 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
2013 Simonsig 7 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2012 Sprinter Sacre 6 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2011 Captain Chris 7 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs
2010 Sizing Europe 8 Andrew Lynch Henry de Bromhead
2009 Forpadydeplasterer 7 Barry Geraghty Tom Cooper
2008 Tidal Bay 7 Denis O’Regan Howard Johnson

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 9 of the last 10 winners had previously run at Cheltenham.
    6 of the last 10 were course winners (these horses punched above their weight significantly, having taken up 60% of the total winners and 36% of the total places from 27% of the total field).
  2. 8 of the last 10 winners (the last 8) won last time out.
    Again, these horses performed better than would have been expected of them, making up 80% of the winners and 61% of the total placed horses in the last 10 years from just 47% of the runners.
  3. 17 of the last 20 winners (including the last 12) finished in the top 2 last time out.
    These horses took up 82% of the total places on offer in the last 10 years from just 67% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners (including the last 7) were aged 7 or younger.
    The only exceptions to this one in the last 27 years were Sizing Europe and Moscow Flyer, both aged 8. Despite this, 21 have tried in the last 10 years, with just 1 winner and 3 making the frame (just 15% of the total places from 21% of the total field). The over-performers are 7yo’s, filling 59% of the places from 45% of the field and accounting for 6 of the last 10 winners.
  5. 6 of the last 10 winners (including 4 of the last 5) had previously won a grade 1 race.
    These horses significantly over-performed, providing 60% of the winners and 46% of the total places from just 28% of the total field. This over-performance is even more significant in the last 5 years, with these horses filling 62% of the total places from 35% of the total field.
  6. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 14 of the last 15) had finished in the top 2 on all previous completed chase starts.
    These horses over-performed significantly, filling 85% of the total places in the last 10 years from 59% of the total field.
  7. 7 of the last 10 winners (7 of the last 8) had previously won a grade 1 or grade 2 over fences.
    These horses filled 52% of the total places from 43% of the total field, and despite an exception in 2014, the strength of the trend has remained more or less the same over the last 5 years (54% of the places from 42% of the field).
  8. 9 of the last 10 winners (including the last 8) were in the top 2 in the market on their last start.
    The horses made up 90% of the winners and 75% of the total places from 67% of the total field.

Other Trends

  1. 8 of the last 10 winners (including the last 6) had won at least 50% of all completed chase starts.
    However, the over-performance from these horses in the last 10 years wasn’t particularly noteworthy (78% of the total places from 74% of the total field) and the horses have actually underperformed in the last 5 years (69% of the total places from 74% of the total field).
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners were rated 142+ over hurdles
    The exception was Western Warhorse in 2014.
  3. 6 of the last 10 winners had previously finished in the top 2 over 2m 4f+.
    This trend has been broken by some of the short-priced recent winners (Altior, Douvan, Un De Sceaux and Sprinter Sacre). However, the latter had finished 2nd over 2m 3½f. Over the last 10 years, this trend showed an over-performance (52% of the places from 44% of the field). However, it has become weaker in the last 5 years (38% of the total places from 40% of the total field).
  4. 5 of the last 6 favourites have won.
    They were all odds on. The exception was 2014, when 33/1 shot Western Warhorse won, beating joint favourite Champagne Fever by just a head.

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