Ballymore Novices Hurdle Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Willoughby Court 6 David Bass Ben Pauling
2016 Yorkhill 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2015 Windsor Park 6 Davy Russell Dermot Weld
2014 Faugheen 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2013 The New One 5 Sam Twiston-Davies Nigel Twiston-Davies
2012 Simonsig 6 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2011 First Lieutenant 6 Davy Russell Mouse Morris
2010 Peddlers Cross 5 Jason Maguire Donald McCain, Jr.
2009 Mikael d’Haguenet 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2008 Fiveforthree 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out.
    This is an extremely strong trend, with these horses having filled 29 of the 30 places on offer in the last 10 years (97% of the total places from 72% of the total field). However, the main reason for this over-performance is the over-performance of horses which won last time out. These horses filled 77% of the total places on offer from 54% of the total field, accounting for 8 of the last 10 winners. Horses which finished 2nd last time out performed more or less as would have been expected of them, filling 20% of the places from 18% of the total field (and accounting for 2 of the last 10 winners).
    In the last 5 years, the record of the horses which won last time out remained strong, if not quite as strong – they accounted for 54% of the total field but filled 67% of the total places
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least 50% of their previous starts over hurdles.
    This is another strong trend, with these runners filling 87% of the total places on offer from 64% of the total field.
    However, this record is also weaker if we focus on the last 5 years – these horses filled 67% of the total places from 68% of the total field.
  3. 10 of the last 10 winners (and all of the last 19) have been aged 5 or 6.
    These horses filled 93% of the total places on offer from 84% of the total field.
    However, this over-performance is mainly due to the good record of 6yo’s.
    They accounted for 7 of the last 10 winners and filled 63% of the total places from 51% of the total field. 6 of the last 7 winners, including all of the last 4, were 6yo’s. In the last 5 years, 6yo’s filled 60% of the total places from 54% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) were officially rated 142 or higher.
    These horses filled 77% of the total places from just 39% of the total field.
    Focusing on just the last 5 years, horses with an official rating of 142 or higher filled 87% of the total places from 49% of the total field
  5. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in a graded race.
    These horses accounted for 90% of the total places in the last 10 years, from 69% of the total field.
    In the last 5 years, they filled 93% of the total places from just 66% of the total field.
  6. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) had at least made the frame in a graded contest.
    These horses filled 87% of the total places in the last 10 years from 54% of the total field.
    This trend has remained strong over the last few years, with these horses having filled 93% of the total places in the last 5 years from 58% of the total field.
  7. 7 of the last 10 winners had won a graded race.
    These horses over-performed significantly in that period, filling 73% of the total places from 37% of the total field.
    This trend has become even stronger (if only slightly) in the last 5 years, with these horses filling 80% of the total places (including 4 of the last 5 winners) from 41% of the total field. The most recent exception was Windsor Park in 2015.
  8. 7 of the last 10 winners (including the last 5) had won over 2m4f+ before running in the Neptune.
    The last exception, Simonsig in 2012, had won over 2m 3½f, while the other two, Peddlers Cross in 2010 and Fiverforthree in 2008, hadn’t been tried over further than 2m 1f. Despite these exceptions, these horses filled 67% of the total places in the last 10 years from 53% of the total field.
    In the last 5 years, they filled 73% of the total places from 59% of the total field (including all of the last 5 winners and 4 of the last 5 runners-up).
  9. 10 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 4 on all previous completed starts over hurdles.
    Over the last 10 years, this trend has been particularly strong, with these horses filling 90% of the total places from 71% of the total field.
    However, these horses have accounted for a higher percentage of the total field over the last 5 years (80%, filling 87% of the total places).

Other Trends

  1. The Challow winner has a poor record in the race – 16 have tried and none have won. However, 5 of the last 6 have managed to make the frame.
  2. In the last 15 years, 33 horses have run in the race having had their first ever start in the UK or Ireland on the flat. These horses didn’t win any of the races and made the frame just 4 times – that’s 9% of the total places from 15% of the total field. While none have run in the last 2 years, this is quite an interesting stat, because beaten horses were often at short prices: Sadlers Wings (finished 6th at 9/2 in 2004), Inglis Drever (finished 2nd at 7/4 in 2004), Gold Medallist (finished 5th at 9/2 in 2005), Group Captain (5th at 5/1 in 2008) and Nichols Canyon (3rd at 7/2 in 2015).

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