Category Archives: Trends Analysis

Ascot Chase Trends Analysis

This year’s Ascot Chase is a fascinating renewal, with old favourite Cue Card, Gold Cup contender Coney Island and Ryanair Chase hopes Top Notch and Waiting Patiently among the field of 7. I’ve picked out 10 key trends for the race and ran this year’s runners past them to see which horses fit the ideal profile for an Ascot Chase winner.

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners had an official rating of 162 or more.
    These horses filled 74% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from just 34% of the total field.
  2. 10 of the last 10 winners had at least placed in a grade 1.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won a grade 1.
    This narrows down the field well, as these horses filled 61% of the total places from 37% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners had won at least once in their last 3 starts.
    These horses filled 91% of the total places from just 69% of the total field.
  5. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 6 last time out.
    These horses filled 87% of the total places (including 90% of the winners) from 78% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners had won 4 or more chases.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 64% of the total field.
  7. 8 of the last 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 67% of the total field.
  8. 8 of the last 10 winners had previously run in between 6 and 19 chases.
    These horses filled 91% of the total places from 81% of the total field.
  9. 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won at Ascot.
    These horses filled 52% of the total places (incluing 70% of the total winners) from 43% of the total field.
  10. 6 of the last 10 winners ran in the King George last time out.
    These horses filled 39% of the total places (including 60% of the winners) from just 16% of the total field.

This Year’s Runners

Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Total
Coney Island Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No Yes No 6
Cue Card Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No 7
Frodon Yes No No Yes Yes Yes No Yes No No 5
Speredek No Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No No 6
Top Notch Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 9
Traffic Fluide No Yes No No No No Yes Yes No Yes 4
Waiting Patiently Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes No No No 5

So, the trends shortlist looks like this:

  1. Top Notch – 9
  2. Cue Card – 7

Top Notch

A quick look at Top Notch’s profile confirms that he’s a leading contender:

  • Overall Record: 19 runs – 10 wins – 3 places
  • 3-3-0 at Ascot
    Won a class 3 hurdle over 2 miles in January 2015
    Won a class 2 2m 5f chase in December 2016
    Won c grade 2 2m 5f chase here last November
  • He runs well with some sort of cut in the ground – 5-4-0 on good to soft and 9-5-2 on soft, compared to 3-0-1 on good ground. 2-1-0 on heavy.
  • The majority of his starts have been in small fields, but he has been fairly consistent in them (14-9-1 in fields of 7 or less, 5-1-2 in bigger fields).
  • He has a strong record in November (6-3-1), December (3-3-0), January (2-1-0) and February (3-3-0). This drops slightly in March (3-0-2) and April (1-0-0). 1-0-0 in October.
  • He has a particularly strong record at right-handed tracks (5-5-0), compared to 14-5-3 going left-handed.
  • He has a strong record on tracks described as having slight undulations (such as Ascot), with a record of 10-8-1. 4-1-0 on flat tracks and 5-1-2 at more undulating tracks.

Betfair Hurdle Trends Analysis

I’ve singled out a number of key trends for the Betfair Hurdle and looked at which of this year’s runners fit the trends:

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners were aged between 4 and 6.
    These horses filled 77% of the total places from 63% of the total field.
  2. 10 of the last 10 winners carried 11-2 or less.
    These horses filled 85% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from 80% of the total field.
  3. 5 of the last 10 winners were officially rated between 134 and 137.
    These horses filled 36% of the total places (including 50% of the total winners) from 23% of the total field. 3 of the last 5 winners have fit this trend, and if we focus on the last 5 years, these horses filled 40% of the total places from 26% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 3 on their last start.
    These horses filled 74% of the total places from 51% of the total field.
  5. 4 of the last 10 winners were dropping down in class.
    These horses filled 36% of the total places from 25% of the total field. This includes 3 of the last 4 winners and both of the last 2. If we focus on the last 5 years, we see that these horses filled 35% of the total places from 17% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners were bred in Ireland or the UK.
    These horses filled 64% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  7. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 16 or less National Hunt races.
    These horses filled 95% of the total places from 87% of the total field.
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners had run in 10 or less hurdles races.
    These horses filled 85% of the total places from 73% of the total field.
  9. 5 of the last 10 winners had never run in a handicap.
    These 5 winners all came in the last 6 years. This is a significant over-performance, considering these horses made up just 13% of the total field in the last 10 years, but managed to fill 23% of the total places. In the last 5 years, they have over-performed even more significantly – 35% of the total places from 20% of the total field.

This Year’s Runners

Horse 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Total
High Bridge No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Jenkins Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Bleu Et Rouge No No No No No No Yes Yes No 2
Verdana Blue Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Charli Parcs Yes No No No No No Yes Yes No 3
Divin Bere Yes No No No No No Yes Yes No 3
Remiluc No No No Yes No No No No No 1
Moon Racer No No No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 5
Misterton No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Kalashnikov Yes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7
Project Bluebook Yes No No No No No No Yes No 2
Kayf Grace No No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Spiritofthegames Yes No No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Lough Derg Spirit Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 7
Poppy Kay No Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 5
Lalor Yes Yes Yes Yes No No Yes Yes Yes 7
Knocknanuss No Yes Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 6
Waterlord No Yes Yes No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes 7
William H Bonney No Yes Yes No No Yes Yes No No 4
Irish Roe No Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes No 7
Silver Streak Yes Yes No Yes No Yes Yes Yes No 6
Nietzsche Yes Yes No No No Yes No Yes No 4
Coeur Blimey No Yes No No No Yes Yes Yes No 4
Zalvados Yes Yes No Yes No No No Yes No 4
Magic Dancer Yes Yes No No No Yes No No No 3
Maquisard Yes Yes No No No No No Yes No 3

So, the trends shortlist:

  1. Kalashnikov, Lough Derg Spirit, Lalor, Waterlord, Irish Roe – 7
  2. Knocknanuss, Silver Streak – 6