Festival Plate Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Road to Respect 6 Bryan Cooper Noel Meade
2016 Empire of Dirt 9 Bryan Cooper Colm Murphy
2015 Darna 9 David Bass Kim Bailey
2014 Ballynagour 8 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
2013 Carrickboy 9 Liam Treadwell Venetia Williams
2012 Salut Flo 7 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
2011 Holmwood Legend 10 Keiran Burke Patrick Rodford
2010 Great Endeavour 6 Danny Cook David Pipe
2009 Something Wells 8 Mr Will Biddick Venetia Williams
2008 Mister McGoldrick 11 Dominic Elsworth Sue Smith

Trends

A quick look at the stats backing up the trends below will confirm that this isn’t a very strong trends race! However, there are a few interesting pieces of information…

Key Trends

  1. 6 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 5 last time out.
    There was a slight over-performance from these horses, filling 63% of the total places from 59% of the total field.
  2. 7 of the last 10 winners had won once or twice that season
    These horses also only over-performed marginally in terms of total places, filling 55% of the total places from 51% of the total field. However, they did account for 70% of the winners in the last 10 years.

Other Trends

  1. 8 of the last 10 winners had never placed in a chase at Cheltenham
    This isn’t a trend which I would be particularly enthusiastic about as in theory it should be a negative. However, these horses did account for 80% of the winners in the last 10 years from 58% of the total field. When we look at the total places, however, we see that these horses only filled 53% of the total places.
  2. 3 of the last 10 winners were trained by David Pipe
    Pipe’s runners filled 15% of the total places from just 9% of the total field.
  3. 2 of the last 10 winners were trained by Venetia Williams
    Williams’ horses filled 20% of the total places from 8% of the total field.
  4. 2 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland
    Irish-trained horses filled 15% of the total places from 11% of the total field.

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