Fred Winter Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Jockey Trainer
2017 Flying Tiger Richard Johnson Nick Williams
2016 Diego du Charmil Sam Twiston-Davies Paul Nicholls
2015 Qualando Nick Scholfield Paul Nicholls
2014 Hawk High Brian Hughes Tim Easterby
2013 Flaxen Flare Davy Condon Gordon Elliott
2012 Une Artiste Jeremiah McGrath Nicky Henderson
2011 What A Charm Paul Townend Arthur Moore
2010 Sanctuaire Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2009 Silk Affair Tom O’Brien Mick Quinlan
2008 Crack Away Jack Paul Carberry Emma Lavelle

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 4 of the last 10 winners were French-bred.
    These horses punched above their weight in terms of numbers – they made up 53% of the total places from 39% of the total field. 5 of the exceptions were Irish-bred – however, Irish-bred horses underperformed in terms of places, accounting for 37% of the total field 27% of the total places.
  2. 4 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
    While this may seem like a low number, these horses filled 38% of the total places (including 40% of the winners) from just 27% of the total field.
  3. 8 of the last 10 winners had had 3 or less previous starts over hurdles starts in the UK or Ireland.
    These horses filled 68% of the total places from 59% of the total field.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners had run in last 37 days.
    The over-performance from these horses isn’t particularly significant when we look at total places (63% of the total places from 61% of the total field), but the fact remains that these horses accounted for 90% of the winners.
  5. 8 of the last 10 winners had won less than 2 times that season.
    These horses filled 80% of the total places from 71% of the total field.
  6. 9 of the last 10 winners had an official rating between 124 and 134.
    Horses with an OR of 124-134 filled 73% of the total places (including 90% of the total wins) from 69% of the total field.
  7. 9 of the last 10 winners had been beaten on at least one of their first two hurdles starts in the UK or Ireland.

Other Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners had not previously run at Cheltenham.
    I tend to be dubious at trends such as this one which should in theory be a negative, but there has been an over-performance for these horses – 88% of the total places (including 100% of the winners) from 80% of the total field.

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