JLT Novices Chase Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Yorkhill 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2016 Black Hercules 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2015 Vautour 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2014 Taquin du Seuil 7 Tony McCoy Jonjo O’Neill
2013 Benefficient 7 Bryan Cooper Tony Martin
2012 Sir Des Champs 6 Davy Russell Willie Mullins
2011 Noble Prince 7 Tony McCoy Paul Nolan

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 5 of the last 7 winners were 7yo’s.
    These horses filled 52% of the total places from just 39% of the total field. Both of the exceptions were 6yo’s, but they showed a slight underperformance, filling 33% of the total places from 37% of the total field.
  2. 6 of the last 7 winners were Irish-trained.
    These horses have punched above their weight, accounting for just 35% of the total field but filling 48% of the total places on offer, including 86% of the total winners.
  3. 7 of the last 7 winners had run at the festival before.
    There horses took up 76% of the total places from 56% of the total field.
  4. 6 of the last 7 winners won their last completed start over fences.
    These horses accounted for less than half of the total field (49%), but managed to fill 67% of the total fences.
  5. 5 of the last 7 winners had won a grade 2 or at least placed in a grade 1.
    These horses filled 67% of the total places from just 48% of the total field. However, it may be worth noting that the two exceptions were the last 2 winners (Yorkhill had won a beginners chase and a grade 3 chase, and Black Hercules had won a beginners chase, won a listed chase and fell at the last when probably about to win a grade 2 chase).
  6. 6 of the last 7 winners (the last 6) had had only one season over hurdles (the previous season).
    These horses filled 71% of the places from 51% of the total field. In the last 3 years, these horses filled 8 of the 9 places on offer.

Other Trends

  1. 7 of the last 7 winners had run in the last 54 days.
    These horses made up 86% of the total places from 80% of the total field.
  2. 6 of the last 7 winners had run at least 3 times over fences.
    The exception was last year’s winner Yorkhill, who ran in just two chases before the JLT. Horses with 3 or more chase starts accounted for the vast majority of runners (89%), but for 95% of the horses which made the frame.
  3. 6 of the last 7 winners had not fallen in a chase.
    These horses made up 77% of the total field and filled 81% of the total places.

weatherbys-cheltenham-betting-guide-500x100.png

%d bloggers like this: