Kim Muir Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Domesday Book 7 Gina Andrews Stuart Edmunds
2016 Cause of Causes 8 Jamie Codd Gordon Elliott
2015 The Package 12 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2014 Spring Heeled 7 Robbie McNamara Jim Culloty
2013 Same Difference 7 Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies
2012 Sunnyhillboy 9 Alan Berry Jonjo O’Neill
2011 Junior 8 Jamie Codd David Pipe
2010 Ballabriggs 9 Richard Harding Donald McCain, Jr.
2009 Character Building 9 Jamie Codd John Quinn
2008 High Chimes 9 James Tudor Evan Williams

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 8 of the last 10 winners were ridden by a jockey who was not claiming weight.
    These horses accounted for 83% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  2. 10 of the last 10 winners had had between 1 and 7 previous career wins.
    The majority of runners in the last 10 years fit this trend, but they still over-performed – they accounted for 95% of the total places from 89% of the total field.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had run at least 12 times in their careers to date.
    Again, most runners fit this trend but there is still an over-performance. These horses filled 90% of the total places from 82% of the total field.
  4. 6 of the last 10 winners had run between 10 and 20 times over fences.
    These horses filled 50% of the total places, including 60% of the winners, from 42% of the total field.
  5. 8 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 137 or higher.
    These horses took up 58% of the total places, but accounted for just 38% of the total field. In the last 5 years, this trend has become even stronger – these horses filled 80% of the total places from 57% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners had their last prep run in a handicap over 3 miles or further.
    This is the ideal preparation, with these horses having filled 73% of the total places from 59% of the total field.
  7. 6 of the last 10 winners wore some form of headgear.
    This included all of the last 5 winners. These horses filled 45% of the total places (including 60% of the winners) from 38% of the total field. This trend has become stronger in recent years – if we focus solely on the last 5 years, these horses filled 55% of the total places from 42% of the total field (including 100% of the last 5 winners).

Other Trends

  1. 2 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 3 on both of their last 2 starts.
    These horses may have only won 2 of the last 10 renewals, but they did only take up 19% of the total field. They filled 30% of the total places, with one of these horses making the frame in each of the last 10 years.
  2. 2 of the last 10 winners were trained in Ireland.
    This hasn’t always been a race for the Irish, but they managed to win in both 2014 (Jim Culloty’s Spring Heeled) and 2016 (Gordon Elliott’s Cause Of Causes). In the last 10 years, they filled 28% of the total places from 17% of the total field. If we focus on the last 5 years, we see a significant over-performance – these horses filled 80% of the total places from 57% of the total field.
  3. 10 of the last 12 winners achieved their career-best RPR within their last 2 starts.
    It may be worth noting that both of the exceptions to this trend were heavily-backed JP McManus runners.

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