Past Winners

Year	Winner	Age	Jockey	Trainer
2017	Apple’s Jade	5	Bryan Cooper	Gordon Elliott
2016	Vroum Vroum Mag	7	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2015	Glens Melody	7	Paul Townend	Willie Mullins
2014	Quevega	10	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2013	Quevega	9	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2012	Quevega	8	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2011	Quevega	7	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2010	Quevega	6	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2009	Quevega	5	Ruby Walsh	Willie Mullins
2008	Whiteoak	5	Jason Maguire	Donald McCain, Jr.

Trends

This isn’t really a race for trends – there have been 10 runnings of the race, and 6 of them were won by Quevega. There was also a freak result the following year, with Annie Power’s infamous fall at the last allowing Glens Melody to win the race. With the wins having been dominated by one horse, it might pay to look for trends among both winners and placed horses.

1. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) had won over at least 2m 4f.
   This is true of 27 of the 30 horses which made the frame in the last 10 years. In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 90% of the total places from 66% of the total field.
   In the last 5 years, these horses have accounted for 87% of the total places from 73% of the total field.
2. 9 of the last 10 winners have been Irish-trained.
   These horses have accounted for 25% of the total field, but 53% of the total places in the last 10 years.
   In the last 5 years, they’ve performed even better – 60% of the total places from 24% of the total field.
3. 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
   In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 60% of the total places from just 28% of the total field.
   Focusing on the last 5 years, they’ve filled 53% of the total places from 28% of the total field.
4. 8 of the last 10 winners had won 3 or more time over hurdles.
   In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 73% of the total places from 62% of the total field.
   This trend has been quite as strong in the last 5 years – 73% of the total places from 70% of the total field.
5. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) were officially rated 150 or higher.
   In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 53% of the total places from just 12% of the total field – a considerable over-performance.
   In the last 5 years, these horses filled 53% of the total places from just 10% of the total field.

The final stat is of particular interest in my opinion. If we look at the last 5 years, the mares which were rated 150 or higher have the following record:

Year	Horse	Finished	Odds
2013	Quevega	1st	8/11
2014	Quevega	1st	8/11
2015	Glens Melody	1st	6/1
2015	Polly Peachum	2nd	9/1
2015	Annie Power	Fell	1/2
2016	Vroum Vroum Mag	1st	4/6
2017	Apples Jade	1st	7/2
2017	Vroum Vroum Mag	2nd	11/4
2017	Limini	3rd	6/4

That’s 5 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. In 2015, there were 3 horses rated 150 or higher in the race and they finished 1st, 2nd and fell (would have been 1st, 2nd and 3rd if Annie Power hadn’t fallen). In 2017, there were 3 horses rated 150 or higher and they filled the top 3 places.