Mares Hurdle Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Apple’s Jade 5 Bryan Cooper Gordon Elliott
2016 Vroum Vroum Mag 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2015 Glens Melody 7 Paul Townend Willie Mullins
2014 Quevega 10 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2013 Quevega 9 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2012 Quevega 8 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2011 Quevega 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2010 Quevega 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2009 Quevega 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2008 Whiteoak 5 Jason Maguire Donald McCain, Jr.

Trends

This isn’t really a race for trends – there have been 10 runnings of the race, and 6 of them were won by Quevega. There was also a freak result the following year, with Annie Power’s infamous fall at the last allowing Glens Melody to win the race. With the wins having been dominated by one horse, it might pay to look for trends among both winners and placed horses.

  1. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) had won over at least 2m 4f.
    This is true of 27 of the 30 horses which made the frame in the last 10 years. In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 90% of the total places from 66% of the total field.
    In the last 5 years, these horses have accounted for 87% of the total places from 73% of the total field.
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners have been Irish-trained.
    These horses have accounted for 25% of the total field, but 53% of the total places in the last 10 years.
    In the last 5 years, they’ve performed even better – 60% of the total places from 24% of the total field.
  3. 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
    In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 60% of the total places from just 28% of the total field.
    Focusing on the last 5 years, they’ve filled 53% of the total places from 28% of the total field.
  4. 8 of the last 10 winners had won 3 or more time over hurdles.
    In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 73% of the total places from 62% of the total field.
    This trend has been quite as strong in the last 5 years – 73% of the total places from 70% of the total field.
  5. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) were officially rated 150 or higher.
    In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 53% of the total places from just 12% of the total field – a considerable over-performance.
    In the last 5 years, these horses filled 53% of the total places from just 10% of the total field.

The final stat is of particular interest in my opinion. If we look at the last 5 years, the mares which were rated 150 or higher have the following record:

Year Horse Finished Odds
2013 Quevega 1st 8/11
2014 Quevega 1st 8/11
2015 Glens Melody 1st 6/1
2015 Polly Peachum 2nd 9/1
2015 Annie Power Fell 1/2
2016 Vroum Vroum Mag 1st 4/6
2017 Apples Jade 1st 7/2
2017 Vroum Vroum Mag 2nd 11/4
2017 Limini 3rd 6/4

That’s 5 wins and 3 places from 9 runners. In 2015, there were 3 horses rated 150 or higher in the race and they finished 1st, 2nd and fell (would have been 1st, 2nd and 3rd if Annie Power hadn’t fallen). In 2017, there were 3 horses rated 150 or higher and they filled the top 3 places.

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