National Hunt Chase Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Tiger Roll 7 Lisa O’Neill Gordon Elliott
2016 Minella Rocco 6 Derek O’Connor Jonjo O’Neill
2015 Cause of Causes 7 Jamie Codd Gordon Elliott
2014 Midnight Prayer 9 Joshua Newman Alan King
2013 Back in Focus 8 Patrick Mullins Willie Mullins
2012 Teaforthree 8 JT McNamara Rebecca Curtis
2011 Chicago Grey 8 Derek O’Connor Gordon Elliott
2010 Poker de Sivola 7 Katie Walsh Ferdy Murphy
2009 Tricky Trickster 6 Sam Waley-Cohen Nigel Twiston-Davies
2008 Old Benny 7 Charlie Huxley Alan King

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 6 of the last 7 winners were officially rated at least 143.
    If we focus on the last 5 years (as ratings in the race have increased over the past few years), horses rated 143 or higher have filled 75% of the places (including 80% of the total winners) from just 38% of the total field.
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners had run at least 4 times that season.
    These horses filled 87% of the total places from 76% of the total field.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 on at least one of their last 3 starts.
    If we look at the last 7 years, only one horse has made the frame which didn’t fit this trend, meaning that these horses took up over 95% of the total places on offer from 83% of the total field. 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 on at least one of their last 2 starts, the exceptions being Cause Of Causes, who had previously finished 2nd in a Kim Muir, and Tiger Roll, who had previously won a Triumph.
  4. 10 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 in a chase over 3m or further.
  5. 7 of the last 10 winners (and 7 of the last 8) had previously contested at least a grade 2 chase.
  6. 10 of the last 10 winners had achieved an RPR of 120 or higher over hurdles.
  7. 10 of the last 10 winners had won a race going left-handed.
    These horses made up the vast majority of the total field (80%) but they did fill 93% of the total places.

Other Trends

  1. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 14 of the last 15) were aged 6-8.
    These horses did account for 83% of the total field, but made up 87% of the total places.
  2. 8 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 4 last time out.
    The horses accounted for 74% of the total field but 77% of the total places on offer.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had either made the frame at the track or hadn’t run here before.
    These horses made up 73% of the total field but took up 77% of the total places.
  4. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 15 of the last 15) had run at least 3 times over fences.
    In the last 15 renewals, these horses filled 91% of the total places from 88% of the total field.

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