RSA Chase Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Might Bite 8 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
2016 Blaklion 7 Ryan Hatch Nigel Twiston-Davies
2015 Don Poli 6 Bryan Cooper Willie Mullins
2014 O’Faolain’s Boy 7 Barry Geraghty Rebecca Curtis
2013 Lord Windermere 7 Davy Russell Jim Culloty
2012 Bobs Worth 7 Barry Geraghty Nicky Henderson
2011 Bostons Angel 7 Robbie Power Jessica Harrington
2010 Weapon’s Amnesty 7 Davy Russell Charles Byrnes
2009 Cooldine 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2008 Albertas Run 7 Tony McCoy Jonjo O’Neill

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 last time out.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from 73% of the total field in the last 10 years. The exception was Lord Windermere in 2013, who was 3rd on his last start.
    In the last 5 years, this over-performance wasn’t as significant at all – 73% of the total places from 70% of the total field.
    A closer look at those numbers show that the horses which finished 2nd last time out actually are largely responsible for that good record (30% of the total places from 20% of the total field). In the last 5 years, though, these horses have actually underperformed – 13% of the total places from 20% of the total field.
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners had had 3-5 previous starts over fences.
    These horses took up 80% of the total places from 70% of the total field. The exception was Don Poli in 2015, who had run in just 2 chases before Cheltenham, winning both of them.
    Despite this blip, the trend has remained strong in the last 5 years (87% of the total places from 76% of the total field).
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners were Irish-bred.
    These horses have over-performed significantly, having filled 80% of the total places in the last 10 years from 61% of the total field.
    Again, the exception was recent (Blaklion in 2016) but the strength of the trend isn’t in question (80% of the places from 57% of the field in the last 5 years).
  4. 10 of the last 10 winners had had between 6 and 13 previous starts in both hurdles and chases.
    26 of the 30 horses which made the frame fit this trend. These horses filled 87% of the total places from 76% of the total field.
    In the last 5 years, the results are even better – 93% of the total places (14 of the 15 horses which made the frame) from 78% of the total field.
  5. 9 of the last 10 winners had previously won or placed in a grade 1 or 2 chase.
    The exception was Might Bite last year, who was undoubtedly about to win a grade novice chase the previous Christmas when he fell at the last. These horses filled 77% of the total places in the last 10 years from 67% of the total field.
    Might Bite may have been an exception, but the 5-year stats are still strong – 73% of the total places from 61% of the total field.
  6. 6 of the last 10 winners (including the last 4) had placed on all of their previous chase starts, with the possible exception of their first.
    In the last 10 years, these horses filled 63% of the total places from 53% of the total field.
    However, this trend has become more prominent in recent years – these horses filled 67% of the total places (including 80% of the winners) in the last 5 years from 46% of the total field.
  7. 10 of the last 10 winners made their chase debut over less than 3 miles.
    In the last 10 years, these horses accounted for 93% of the total places from 80% of the total field.
    These horses accounted for all of the placed horses in the last 6 years, but have also accounted for the vast majority of the total field. In the last 5 years, these horses have filled 100% of the total places from 87% of the total field.
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners were novice hurdlers the previous season.
    These horses filled 70% of the total places in the last 10 years from 59% of the total field.
    This has become marginally weaker in the last 5 years (67% of the total places from 61% of the total field).
  9. 7 of the last 10 winners had won a hurdles race at listed level or better.
    The exceptions were Might Bite last year, O’Faolains Boy in 2014 and Bostons Angel in 2011. These horses filled 63% of the total places from 45% of the total field in the last 10 years.
    Despite 2 winning exceptions in the last 5 years, the over-performance in terms of places has become even more significant – 73% of the total places from 41% of the total field.

Other Trends

  1. 8 of the last 10 winners were 7yo’s.
    These were the only age group to show any real over-performance (and it is marginal) filling 57% of the places from 54% of the field (this did include 80% of the winners). However, both of the exceptions came in the last 3 years (Might Bite was 8 last year and Don Poli was 6 in 2016). If we look at the 5-year stats, 7yo’s accounted for 53% of the total places from 56% of the total field (only 30% of the total winners). In this time period, it was the 6yo’s that over-performed (27% of the total places from 20% of the total field).
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners had not fallen in their last 3 starts.
    The exception to this trend came last year, with Might Bite having fallen at Kempton on his second-last start. In the last 5 years, this trend has been extremely weak – these horses filled just 67% of the total places from 87% of the total field.

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