Stayers Hurdle Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Nichols Canyon 7 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2016 Thistlecrack 8 Tom Scudamore Colin Tizzard
2015 Cole Harden 6 Gavin Sheehan Warren Greatrex
2014 More Of That 6 Barry Geraghty Jonjo O’Neill
2013 Solwhit 9 Paul Carberry Charles Byrnes
2012 Big Bucks 9 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2011 Big Bucks 8 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2010 Big Bucks 7 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2009 Big Bucks 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2008 Inglis Drever 8 Denis O’Regan Howard Johnson

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 7 of the last 10 winners were aged between 6 and 8.
    However, these horses accounted for 72% of the total field and 70% of the total places, so we’ll have to dig a bit deeper to find an edge.
    The significant over-performance is that of the 6yo’s.
    These accounted for 3 of the last 10 winners and filled 43% of the total places from just 23% of the total field. The 7yo’s and 8yo’s actually underperformed, filling just 26% of the places from 49% of the total field. Strangely enough, the 9yo’s did better, with 3 wins and further 3 places from 17 runners in the last 10 years (20% of the total places, including 30% of the total winners, from just 13% of the total field).
  2. 8 of the last 10 winners won last time out.
    These horses filled 53% of the total places from 29% of the total field. However, it is worth noting that the exceptions came in 2 of the last 3 years – Nichols Canyon fell at the last on his prep run last year (he most likely would have finished either 2nd or 3rd), while Cole Harden was 3rd on his last start before winning in 2015.
    If we focus on the last 5 renewals, the over-performance still exists, however, with last time out winners filling 47% of the total places from 29% of the total field.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had had no more than 3 previous runs that season.
    These horses took up 73% of the total places in the last 10 years from 57% of the total field. The exception was Cole Harden in 2016, who ran 4 times that season before winning the World Hurdle.
  4. 9 of the last 10 winners finished in the top 2 on all completed hurdles starts that season.
    These horses made up just 33% of the total field in the last 10 years but they managed to fill 60% of the total places (including 90% of the total winners).
    In the last 5 years, these horses filled 60% of the total places from 40% of the total field.
  5. 10 of the last 10 winners had not previously been beaten in the World Hurdle.
    Horses which had previously been beaten in the race filled just 7% of the places from 23% of the total field (2 places from 30 runners in the last 10 years).
    Focusing on the last 5 years, this record hasn’t gotten any better – 7% of the total places from 25% of the total field.
  6. 10 of the last 10 winners had a total career strike rate of 40% or higher.
    In the last 10 years, these horses filled 73% of the total places from 50% of the total field.
    In the last 5 years, these horses filled 73% of the total places from 57% of the total field.
  7. 9 of the last 10 winners had a strike rate of 50% or more over hurdles.
    In the last 10 years, horses which had won at least half of their previous starts over hurdles filled 63% of the total places from 36% of the total field.
    This trend isn’t quite as strong over the last 5 years, but these horses still filled 53% of the total places from 41% of the total field.
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners were officially rated 154 or higher.
    Horses with an OR of 154 or higher filled 90% of the total places from 70% of the total field in the last 10 years.
    In the last 5 years, these horses filled 93% of the total places from 71% of the total field.
  9. 10 of the last 10 winners were running after a break of between 30 and 90 days.
    In the last 10 years, these horses filled 87% of the total places from 67% of the total field.
    This trend has become even stronger in the last 5 years, with these horses filling 93% of the total places from 67% of the total field.

Other Trends

  1. 3 of the last 5 winners were second-season hurdlers.
    These horses took up 40% of the total places on offer in the last 5 years from just 32% of the total field.
  2. 5 of the last 10 winners had made the frame in a grade 1 hurdle at the previous year’s festival.
    The horses accounted for 30% of the total places from 21% of the total field.
  3. Horses which ran in an Albert Bartlett have failed to win the race in the last 10 years (18 tried).
    However, they filled 7% of the total places from 4% of the total field.

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