Supreme Novices Hurdle Trends

Previous Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Labaik 6 Jack Kennedy Gordon Elliott
2016 Altior 6 Nico de Boinville Nicky Henderson
2015 Douvan 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2014 Vautour 5 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2013 Champagne Fever 6 Ruby Walsh Willie Mullins
2012 Cinders And Ashes 5 Jason Maguire Donald McCain
2011 Al Ferof 6 Ruby Walsh Paul Nicholls
2010 Menorah 5 Richard Johnson Philip Hobbs
2009 Go Native 6 Paul Carberry Noel Meade
2008 Captain Cee Bee 7 Robert Thornton Eddie Harty

Trends

Key Trends:

  1. 9 of the last 10 winners (the last 9) were aged 5 or 6.
    These horses did make up 85% of the total field in the last 10 years, but accounted for 90% of the total places. Their record has become stronger in the last 4 years, with these horses making up 86% of the total field and 100% of the total places.
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners (and 19 of the last 20) had won at least 50% of their previous hurdle starts
    The exception was Labaik, and one could argue that he fitted this trend, as he won 2 of the 3 races in which he actually jumped off. These horses filled 90% of the total places from 65% of the total field in the last 10 years.
  3. 20 of the last 20 winners had won over hurdles in the UK or Ireland.
    These horses make up the vast majority of the field each year, but they’ve maintained their strong record over the last 20 years (100% of the winners and 100% of the places from 91% of the field – identical to their 10-year record).
  4. 8 of the last 10 winners (17 of the last 20) won last time out.
    The exceptions were Labaik (who practically refused to race on his previous start), Menorah in 2010 (who finished 2nd as the 1/2 favourite on his last start) and Arcalis in 2003 (who finished 3rd as 11/8 favourite on his last start). In the last 10 years, these horses filled 77% of the total places on offer from just 46% of the total field.
  5. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 19 of the last 20) had between 2 and 5 previous starts over hurdles.
    In the last 10 years, these horses have filled 93% of the total places from 82% of the total field (this record has remained almost identical in the last 5 years – 93% of the total places from 83% of the total field).
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners had a starting price of 2/1 or lower on their last start.
    One exception was 9/4 last time out and the other was Labaik). These horses over-performed significantly in the last 10 years, filling 67% of the total places (including 80% of the winners) from 49% of the total field.
  7. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 17 of the last 18) ran in a field of 12 or less last time out.
    In the last 10 renewals, these horses filled 83% of the total places from 73% of the total field. In the last 5 years, that record is 87% of the total places from 79% of the total field.
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners had an official rating of 138 or higher.
    In the last 10 years, these horses filled 93% of the total places from 60% of the total field. In the last 5 runnings of the race, there have been more horses with higher OR’s than before (they took up 71% of the total field, and still filled 93% of the total places).
  9. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 18 of the last 20) had at least 2 wins that season.
    In the last 10 years, horses which had won at least twice that season filled 90% of the total places from 63% of the total field. In the last 5 years, these horses have accounted for 70% of the total field, but managed to fill 93% of the total places.
  10. 10 of the last 10 winners had previously posted an RPR of 142 or higher.
    These horses filled 83% of the total places from just 43% of the total field. In the last 5 years, these horses have accounted for a higher percentage of the total field (61%) and filled 87% of the total places.
  11. 8 of the last 10 winners (including the last 7) had run in a graded race.
    These horses filled 73% of the total places from 64% of the total field. In the last 5 years, these horses filled 80% of the total places from 71% of the total field.
  12. 8 of the last 10 winners had won a graded race.
    These horses over-performed significantly, filling 60% of the total places from 26% of the total field. In the last 5 years, this over-performance was even more significant – 67% of the total places from 29% of the total field.
  13. 8 of the last 10 winners had at least placed in a graded race.
    These horses accounted for 43% of the total field in the last 10 years and managed to fill 67% of the total places. In the last 5 years, they filled 73% of the total places from 47% of the total field.
  14. 9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 3 on all completed hurdles starts.
    The exception was Labaik last year. In the last 10 years, these horses filled 90% of the total places from 63% of the total field. In the last 5 years, this over-performance has been reduced marginally, but it’s still a very strong trend – 87% of the total places from 66% of the total field.

Other Trends

  1. None of the last 20 winners ran in an open graded race last time out (5 places from 26 runners).
    These horses did manage to fill 8% of the total places from 7% of the total field, but didn’t win any races.
  2. None of the last 20 winners ran in a handicap last time out (6 places from 47 runners).
    These horses filled 10% of the total places from 13% of the total field.
  3. 15 of the last 17 winners had run at least 5 times in their careers.
    This trend was broken in 2014 by Vautour and in 2015 by Douvan – both trained by Willie Mullins and unbeaten in their careers to date. The trend was also broken in 1999 and 1997, both times by horses unbeaten in their careers. These exceptions have contributed to the fact that in the last 5 years, these horses have actually underperformed, filling 53% of the total places from 66% of the total field.

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