Tag Archives: punchestown

2000 Guineas Day Selections

The Irish National Hunt season comes to a close today at Punchestown but the main focus will obviously be on Newmarket, where the first real highlight of the flat seasons takes place in terms of the 2000 Guineas.

Punchestown
The Mares Champion Hurdle sees just 5 runners go to post and Benie Des Dieux, who arguably improved from Cheltenham to Punchestown last year, really should be good enough to win and it just doesn’t seem like a betting race. The other grade one on the card is the Champion Four Year Old Hurdle and it might be a more attractive betting prospect. Fusil Raffles is the 7/4 favourite and certainly has leading claims based on his Adonis win and on the fact that he comes here a fresh horse. However, I’m a bit surprised to see that Fakir D’Oudairies is 3/1 and I think he looks a fair play in a race where there should arguably be joint favourites.
Fakir D’Oudairies 1pt win 3/1

The other race I’m interested in is the handicap hurdle at 5:35, which features two horses that I’ve been keeping an eye on. Cartwright lost significant ground at the start in the Martin Pipe but came home very strongly. He was disappointing at Ayr next time out but certainly wouldn’t have liked the ground there, with a strong preference for testing conditions. Canardier’s preference in terms of the going appeared to be the opposite before this spring, when he was a good 5th in the Coral Cup and then 3rd in the Merseyrail Handicap Hurdle at Aintree. He has only gone up a pound since the latter and it’s his form in big fields that makes him particularly interesting – his form in fields of 16 or more reads 13153. The ground might be a small bit on the good side for Cartwright, but Canardier is of interest and can be backed at 10/1 with Paddy Power, who are paying 6 places.
Canardier 0.5pt e/w 10/1 (1/5 odds 6 places, Paddy Power)

Newmarket
3:35 – I’ve backed Magna Grecia in the 2000 Guineas ante post and would stick with him at 5/1 – the money is coming for Ten Sovereigns but this can be explained by jockey bookings. I have my doubts over whether a stiff mile is ideal for the favourite, while there are no such concerns for Magna Grecia. Skardu could well keep improving but he looks a bit short after winning a messy race in the Craven. Madhmoon had to give away 3 pounds to a race-fit horse on tough ground in the Leopardstown trial and that defeat probably wasn’t as disappointing as it may have seemed at first glance, but I thought that he might have been a bigger price off the back of that than he is. The same can be said for Royal Marine, who was just unlucky in the Craven but I wouldn’t want to back him at his price. Advertise has strong claims but again, the trip is a concern. I suspect that Shine So Bright will be seen to best effect over 7 furlongs, and Kick On might be best over 10 furlongs.

Al Hilalee is a Dubawi so should progress as a 3yo and should get the mile – he was very impressive on debut at the July Course last season. The very fact that he has been supplemented means that he is of interest, and I think that 16/1 isn’t a bad price.
Magna Grecia 2pt win 5/1 (general)
Al Hilalee 0.5pt win 16/1 (general)

4:45 – UAE Jewel is a seriously exciting horse and one to keep a close eye on this season. Walkinthesand got to within a neck of Kick On in the Fielden Stakes and the winner had the advantage of a lead on the rail. He didn’t look 100% before the race and so should come on for the run, and he didn’t seem to deal that well with the dip either. With only four horses today, there doesn’t look to be much value in the race, but a close eye should be kept on both of these horses.

Punchestown Day 1 Preview & Selections

Day one of the Punchestown Festival may not match the other spring festivals in terms of quantity, with the three grade one contests consisting of eight or less runners, but it’s nevertheless top class action and is required viewing for National Hunt fans.

2:40 – Herald Champion Novice Hurdle – 2m – Grade 1
The first of the grade one races is the Herald Champion Novice Hurdle at 2:40 and on the face of things it doesn’t look a betting race. Klassical Dream was brilliant in the Supreme and the clock backs up this view. It would be no great surprise if there was more improvement in him and it’s possible that he could step up in trip considering the fact that the Ballymore was an option. However, he faces stiff opposition today. Felix Desjy was 5th in the Supreme after receiving considerable market support before the off. He travelled well but couldn’t find much towards the end of the race. I’ve wondered for a while whether small fields could be key to this horse and he duly obliged in a field of 7 at Aintree next time out, beating Aramon by a length and a half (although he idled on the run in and could well have won by a lot more).

Aramon is a horse that I feel has been unlucky this year, though. He exceeded expectations on the good ground that prevailed throughout the season but was unsuited by the softer conditions at Cheltenham and Aintree. I still think that he could be a very good horse on better ground, although the concern will have to be whether he begins to feel the effects of a long season.

The interesting thing about the race is that each and every one of them could be considered in with a chance. Champagne Platinum has been hugely impressive on both starts to date although this is a big step up in class. Mister Blue Sky won a grade 2 at Fairyhouse a few weeks ago and deserves his place here. Quick Grabim was ruled out of Cheltenham due to injury but his win in the Royal Bond in December (beating Aramon with considerable ease) suggests that he could be in the mix here if back to his best. He was a really exciting horse early in the season and may benefit from coming here a fresher horse than the others. This will be a great race to watch.

5:30 – Boylesports Champion Chase – Grade 1 – 2m
Min is the odds on favourite here after a terrific display at Aintree. Next in the betting is Un De Sceaux, who would appreciate some rain, followed by Great Field. The interesting point here is probably that these three are all likely to go forward. These tactics worked well for Min at Aintree and it would be a surprise if they were deserted today, while Un De Sceaux has always gone from the front (the exception was the Ryanair last time out when more patient tactics didn’t work out) and Great Field is another confirmed front-runner (the question in his case will be how long his jumping can hold up).

With these three getting into a battle up the front, the race could play to the strengths of something else. Hells Kitchen may not go forward but does tend to race very keenly and so he wouldn’t be the prime candidate for picking up the pieces. Castlegrace Paddy and Ordinary World are the two at the bottom of the betting and it’s this pair that we know will be given patient rides, hunting around and attempting to come through in the finish when others have expended too much energy early on. Castlegrace Paddy does have a decent record at right-handed tracks (4 wins from 8 compared to 0 from 4 going left-handed) but all of his wins have come on softer ground and after a longer break.

This leaves us with the somewhat unusual option of Ordinary World. He was 7th of 9 in this race last year, 26 lengths behind the winner. However, that was on tougher ground than he will encounter this year and his form in chases around this trip in going conditions more similar to today’s is 12323232. On all known form he shouldn’t be good enough to win today. However, with six runners we have the prospect of a without the favourite market in which we can still bet each-way.
Ordinary World 0.25pt e/w 100/1 (1/4 odds, 2 places, Skybet, BetVictor, Boylesports)
Ordinary World W/O Min 0.25pt e/w 50/1 (1/4 odds, 2 places, Boylesports)

6:40 – Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase – Grade 1 – 3m½f
Delta Work only managed to finish 3rd in what was a high class RSA Chase but there are plenty of reasons to think that he could be better than that already impressive standard. Firstly, he’s only 6 years old, a year younger than any other horse than ran in the RSA that day other than Mister Malarky. Secondly, Gordon Elliott’s form at that point hadn’t been brilliant – his form for the festival overall was 7%, whereas he usually operates at a strike rate of around 15% and his strike rates for the 2017 and 2018 festivals were 21% and 25% respectively. Thirdly, the ground still had some cut in it on the Wednesday at Cheltenham and Delta Work has shown his best form this season on a sounder surface (212111 on yielding or better, 3324313 on soft or worse).

Fourthly, the key to his form looks to be a recent run (4 wins and 2 places from 6 starts when back out within 30 days of his last start), but he had had a 74-day break going into the RSA (his break since that race has been 48 days). Finally, a look at the race itself suggests that he suffered from a lack of luck in running. One excellent jump probably brought him to the front earlier than would have been ideal. He committed at that stage and then was short of space jumping the last and was forced to switch out to the right.

Overall, I’m just convinced that Delta Work is a very good horse. To me, 7/4 seems a very reasonable price due to the fact that A Plus Tard is so short in the betting. The latter certainly looked like a graded horse when winning the Close Brothers, but it has to be remembered that the Close Brothers is rarely a fantastic race and the subsequent form this year hasn’t done anything to suggest otherwise. He’s competing for favouritism with Delta Work at the moment and my preference has to be for the former.

Getabird is clearly a talented horse on his day and has run well at Punchestown in the past but again, 7/2 is a bit short for me. Discorama is also a nice type, but the concern would be that the gruelling four miler at the festival may have taken a lot out of him. Clondaw Cian and Atlanta Ablaze, two other horses which were involved towards the finish in that race, didn’t look like themselves next time out and Discorama tends to run well fresh anyway, with his form when back out within 50 days of his previous start reading 2372552, compared to 11F after a longer break. He has also shown his best form in bigger fields.

Winter Escape would need to improve significantly from his last start on Easter Sunday to be in contention, Drovers Lane has 21 lengths to find with Delta Work and Chris’s Dream and Articulum would also need to find significant improvement.
Delta Work 2pt win 7/4 (general)

Saturday Selections (Plus a Punchestown Ante Post Bet)

There’s plenty of good racing in both codes today as Ayr hosts the Scottish Grand National and Newbury has its Greenham meeting. I’ve had a look at some of the ITV races at both tracks, along with the flat card at Naas and a couple of interests in the evening at Wolverhampton.

1:25 Ayr – Handicap Chase – 2m½f
Azzuri was a non-runner in the Red Rum at Aintree last week and I did fancy him for it. The key to his form is spring and summer – over jumps, his record from March to September reads 312212113110 – 6 wins and another 3 places from 12 starts. He hasn’t been up to much on his first three starts for Dan Skelton, but they came between February 2nd and March 2nd so he could just be reaching his peak now. Those three starts have also seen his rating drop down to 132 from 144 when he arrived in the yard – he won a grade 2 handicap chase in Killarney by 10 lengths off 131 for Richard O’Brien last July, so he looks to be well treated now. He’s a real good ground horse (5 wins from 8 on good ground over jumps and 1 win from 12 on softer), so pulling him out at Aintree and waiting for today may have been a shrewd decision. 3/1 isn’t a wild price but it’s just about big enough for me to support him.
Azzuri – 1pt win 3/1 (general)

2:20 Naas – Maiden – 5f
Capel At Dawn looked like one to keep an eye on when running on well to finish 5th on her first run at Naas when running green from a bad draw. I would have thought that better ground and possibly a step up in trip would have suited and while she doesn’t step up in trip today, she will have a nicer surface, will have come on for the run, and has a nicer draw. I wasn’t particularly excited about her from a betting point of view as I thought that she’d be found in the market but 9/2 seems like a fair enough price for a small interest.
Capel At Dawn 0.5pt win 9/2 (Paddy Power, Betfair)

2:25 Ayr – Scottish Champion Hurdle Race (Handicap) – 2m
Mister Fisher has some strong form to his name in the novice hurdling division this season – at Christmas he finished 5 lengths ahead of Thomas Darby at Kempton, who went on to run a brilliant race to finish 2nd in the Supreme, and at Haydock in January he beat Bright Forecast with quite a bit of ease despite giving him 3 pounds. The latter went on to finish 3rd in the Ballymore at Cheltenham and is now rated 149, whereas Mister Fisher comes here off a mark of 145. This is due to a more disappointing performance in the Supreme, but he seemed to just pull too hard that day on ground which may not have suited, and if they can manage to get him settled here he might just turn out to have a bit more class than his mark suggests.
Mister Fisher – 1pt win 11/2 (Bet365, Unibet)

3:15 Newbury – The MansionBet Spring Cup (Class 2 Handicap)
The Spring Mile at Doncaster won by Petrus looks to be good form, and Exec Chef ran very well from off the pace to finish 2nd that day. There was a bias towards more prominent runners, so I would think that that form can be upgraded slightly. He looks to be the pick of the bunch here. In the same race, Gulf Of Poets was another few lengths back in 5th. I fancied him that day, particularly considering his form at the beginning of the season, but I reckon the ground was just a bit quick for him and he should be more at home here with a little bit more ease underfoot. His form in April reads 311111, and he looks slightly forgotten in the market at around the 20/1 mark.
Exec Chef 1pt win 8/1
Gulf Of Poets 0.5pt e/w 20/1 (William Hill, 5 places, 1/5 odds)

3:25 Naas – Handicap – 6f
Verhoyen received a good bit of market support last time out at Leopardstown and ran a much better race than he had on his previous few starts. This was over 7f, but his best form is over shorter so I’m glad to see him drop back to 6f today. He ran an excellent race to finish 2nd in a 5f handicap at the Curragh last August off 74, so it’s interesting to see him run today off 67, with a 5 pound claimer on board. His last run suggested that he might just be beginning to find form and if he does return to something near last August’s level of form, he would be very interesting.
Verhoyen 0.5pt e/w 12/1 (general, ¼ odds 4 places)

3:35 Ayr – Scottish Grand National – 4m
It’s easy to see a case for a lot of these at the top of the market – Vintage Clouds, for example, had obvious claims in the Grand National and never got the chance to run his race, so if you fancied him there, you would have to like him here too. Big River absolutely stormed up the hill in the Ultima, making up a lot of ground to finish 4th – however, that was after a break of 86 days which I reckon might be key to this horse. His form after over 30 days off is 12121131F4 (5 wins and 3 places from 10 starts), whereas his form back out within 30 days is 15P26 (1 win and 1 place from 5 starts). He comes here after a break of 32 days, so you could argue that it’s enough of a break, but I’m happy to leave him alone and wait until he appears somewhere else as a slightly fresher horse. Beware The Bear also has obvious claims based on the Ultima form, but again I’ll leave him alone considering his hefty weight.

18 pounds lower in the weights, we’ll find my selection (admittedly not going unnoticed in the market) – Crosshue Boy for Sean Doyle. There are two key points which stand out in his form. Firstly, when back out within 2 weeks of his previous start, he has 5 wins and another 2 places from 12 starts, with form of 115B21046113. After a longer break, he has won just twice from 20 starts, one after a break of 73 days and the other coming just 20 days after his previous start. The second of those wins was at this meeting last year, when he won the 3 mile novices handicap chase in what was probably a career best performance. This brings us to the second key point in his form – he has won 6 times and places another 5 times from 15 starts in the months of March and April, with his form in those months reading 221901113153. The last two starts came this season, when he was 5th after a break of 99 days on St Patrick’s Day at Wexford, before running at the same track the day before the Grand National, catching the eye as he ran on well into 3rd in a handicap hurdle over 2m 4f. It would appear that he has been laid out for this race since his win at the meeting last year. It’s now his time of year and he has had his run to shake off the cobwebs, so it looks like the plan might just work out.
Crosshue Boy – 1pt e/w 12/1 (Bet365, ¼ odds 5 places – you might choose to go with one of the other firms paying out on 6 places, but I’m happy to give up the extra place in order to get ¼ odds).

6:30 Wolverhampton – Handicap – 5f
With such intriguing action over jumps and on the flat in both the UK and Ireland today, it’s strange for me to have an interest in the card at Wolverhampton. However, there is one that I’m very interested in, in the 6:30. Super Julius really caught my eye finishing 5th at Navan last time out. He was dropped 2 pounds for that start to 62, although he runs on the all-weather this evening off a mark of 59. On his handicap debut, this horse was rated 88, and his rating has been in the 80’s a few times since. His last two wins were off 77 and 82, and he looked like he was finding form again last time, so it’s reasonable to think that he could now be a few steps ahead of the handicapper. His 2 wins in England for his old yard were his first two starts with cheekpieces, which he then wore for 9 of his next 11 starts but hasn’t worn on his 4 starts so far for his new connections. He dons them again today for the first time, and is running over 5f, his optimum trip. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him put in a massive run.
Super Julius 2pt win 13/2 (general)

7:30 Wolverhampton – Handicap – 1m½f
This is a bit of a mad one, and he’s not a horse that many people will have an interest in backing these days. However, I didn’t think that Gabrials Kaka shaped all that badly last time out at Newcastle for a 33/1 shot, and he’s a big price again today at 20/1. He wouldn’t be my most confident shot of the day, but he’s down another 2 pounds for that run and I think he’s worth a very small each-way bet.
Gabrials Kaka 0.5pt e/w 20/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair, ¼ odds, 3 places)

Ante-Post – Punchestown Gold Cup
When Paddy Power and Betfair put up an ante post market for the Punchestown Gold Cup, Bellshill’s price of 5/1 caught my eye. For that reason, I was delighted to see Ladbrokes put him up at 7/1. For one thing, this race doesn’t usually have a massive field – in 2016 and 2017 there were just 6 runners (from 20 entries in 2016 and 19 in 2017) and last year there were 12 (from 29 entries). This year there are 22 initial entries, 9 of which are also entered in the Irish Grand National just over a week before this race. In other words, it wouldn’t be a major shock if the field was fairly small on the day.

It sounds as if both Kemboy and Al Boum Photo are being aimed at the race, and although they deserve their places at the head of the market, I reckon that running fresh probably played to their strengths on their last starts. Bellshill jumped very poorly in the Gold Cup but this was hardly a major disappointment as it’s no secret that he doesn’t like Cheltenham, with his career form away from the track reading 122111132111F15141 – the 5th was in the Irish National when he could well have won but got into trouble at the last fence, and the 4th was in an unusual Savills Chase (won by Kemboy) when he put in a great run. His Punchestown form is 111, all in grade 1’s, including this race which he won last year. His Cheltenham form, on the other hand, is 003P. I’m more than happy to excuse his last run and 7/1 looks like value in a race that could cut up a lot.
Bellshill 2pt e/w 7/1 (Ladbrokes, 1/5 odds 3 places)

That ante post bet aside, today’s bets are:

1:25 Ayr – Azzuri – 1pt win 3/1
2:20 Naas – Capel At Dawn 0.5pt win 9/2
2:25 Ayr – Mister Fisher – 1pt win 11/2
3:15 Newbury – Exec Chef 1pt win 8/1
3:15 Newbury – Gulf Of Poets 0.5pt e/w 20/1
3:25 Naas – Verhoyen 0.5pt e/w 12/1
3:35 Ayr – Crosshue Boy – 1pt e/w 12/1
6:30 Wolverhampton – Super Julius 2pt win 13/2
7:30 Wolverhampton – Gabrials Kaka 0.5pt e/w 20/1
Total staked: 10.5 points