Ultima Handicap Chase Trends

Past Winners

Year Winner Age Jockey Trainer
2017 Un Temps Pour Tout 8 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
2016 Un Temps Pour Tout 7 Tom Scudamore David Pipe
2015 The Druids Nephew 8 Barry Geraghty Neil Mulholland
2014 Holywell 7 Richie McLernon Jonjo O’Neill
2013 Golden Chieftain 8 Brendan Powell Jnr Colin Tizzard
2012 Alfie Sherrin 9 Richie McLernon Jonjo O’Neill
2011 Bensalem 8 Robert Thornton Alan King
2010 Chief Dan George 10 Paddy Aspell James Moffatt
2009 Wichita Lineman 8 Tony McCoy Jonjo O’Neill
2008 An Accordion 7 Tom Scudamore David Pipe

Trends

Key Trends

  1. 10 of the last 10 winners (and 19 of the last 20, the last 19) were aged between 7 and 10.
    There have only 3 exceptions to this one in 43 races, the most recent with an 11yo winning in 1997. In the last 20 years, 7-10 year-olds have made up 80% of the total field, but 95% of the winners and 92% of the total places on offer. This is a necessity.
    In recent years, this trend has probably shifted away from the 10yo’s, with 9 of the last 10 winners (including the last 7) aged 7-9.
    In the last 10 years, 7-9yo’s have taken up 79% of the total places (and 90% of the winners) from 69% of the total field.
  2. 9 of the last 10 winners were either novices or second-season chasers.
    The exception, The Druids Nephew, was a third-season chaser when he won in 2013. It may be worth noting that all three novices to win (Wichita Lineman in 2009, Holywell in 2014 and Un Temps Pour Tout on his first time winning the race in 2016) all had good form over hurdles, having won a hurdles race worth 10k or more.
  3. 9 of the last 10 winners had finished in the top 2 that season
  4. 8 of the last 10 winners had won over 3m or further.
    One exception was Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016, and the other was 2011 winner Bensalem, who had finished 2nd 3 times from 5 starts over 3m or further.
  5. 8 of the last 10 winners had previously had 9 or less starts over fences.
    These horses filled 67% of the total places on offer (including 80% of the winners) from just 48% of the total field.
  6. 8 of the last 10 winners had run between 2 and 4 times that season.
    These horses filled 72% of the places on offer in the last 10 years from just 60% of the total field.
  7. 7 of the last 10 winners had previously won a class 3 chase or better but had not won a graded chase.
    The exceptions were Holywell in 2014, whose two chase wins had come in class 4’s, Un Temps Pour Tout in 2016, who was yet to win a chase, and the same horse the next year, who had won a graded chase (this race the previous year).
  8. 10 of the last 10 winners had previously posted an RPR of 143 or higher
  9. 10 of the last 10 winners posted their career-high RPR over 3 miles or further

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